A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that polarised the nation and unleashed disorder, a warning comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same could occur with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is ready.
That is the message from two respected journalists from both sides of the Irish border who have collaborated to analyse the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to establish a new state with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly contentious and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that events can come out of the blue and can build support rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the political architecture of our region remains extremely volatile."
New Title Aims to Provoke Discussion
The team have studied the political, financial and cultural rationales for any structural alteration in a publication, Examining Irish Unification, released by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the topic with a series of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We must avoid a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose implications have not been clarified because then you end up with an extremely split population where those defeated are resistant to defeat and the those successful don't know exactly what it is that they have won."
Governmental Mandate
Under the peace accord, the Northern Ireland official must arrange a referendum on Irish unity if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups claim such a time is imminent, and a organisation called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions play down the prospect, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Ideological statements supporting and opposing unification has masked the shortage of substantive discussion, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the detailed consideration which may surpass that to make it possible hasn't for the most part happened. Much has taken place in scholarly circles but scarcely any politicians or campaigners want to engage with even the basics. As an example, what type of nation might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the volume, none of the commentators supports unification or the status quo. Both composes two pieces that aim for impartiality in detailing the argument for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social statistics, previous instances and structural examples.
Discussions range over flags and symbols, taxes, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The aim is to enlighten and provoke discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there has not yet occurred a discussion," stated O’Toole. "Discussion indicates an recognition of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on each side."
Simultaneous Plebiscites
A public vote in Northern Ireland would simultaneously prompt one in the Republic of Ireland, where citizens report they support unification but reject increased taxation or implementing a alternative symbol to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should work out what the plan from Irish nationalism is aside from just stating: 'We desire a unified Ireland and we value you'," stated the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it may take place suddenly. "It is possible just a reckless or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let's just do this and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he commented. "One side will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to participate in the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This is about your state. It's a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
