Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new comprehensive peace framework for achieving ceasefire appeared – briefly – to have been defused. A American diplomat spoke of "substantial progress" after bilateral negotiations in Geneva. On Monday night, Moscow made its response: another massive barrage of missile and drone strikes on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of contrasting events captured the grim essence of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: hopeful statements are delivered from various governments. Considerable effort is allocated on restraining certain initiatives. By night, Moscow clearly shows the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "peace".
After-Dark Attacks
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is able to track projectile deployments from Russian territory, a capability enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, Ukrainian air force fighter jets that had been dispatched to counter approaching aerial threats roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by NATO members.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons engaged: several firings targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, presumably provided by partner states. Every firing shakes the surroundings, causing tremors. The brief panic quickly gives way to grim resignation: perhaps the incoming missile won't strike its target this time, protecting urban areas from catastrophe and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Following this, a heavy machine gun opened up on a aerial vehicle close by, part of a defensive team – most likely allied-provided weaponry. Sadly, the bullets missed the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its objective.
Periodically, this continued until dawn. Kyiv faced the morning news: seven people killed, devastation and heating outages in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As always, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those full day demonstrated Ukraine's critical military reliance on international aid – a reliance that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to fill in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's largest corruption scandal in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after prior negotiation attempts and bilateral conferences.
Every new approach from US leadership unfolds according to the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, effectively counters. They contain the crisis but never actually achieve victory. This trend will, certainly, endure.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize particular leaders of persistently promoting Russian terms. But that does not seem to be the whole story. US administration functions according to a assumption understood by seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have failed to defend militarily. The US administration assumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to abandon the areas that it already controls in Ukraine's southern or eastern regions.
The problem is that while recognising this factual reality, American administration does nothing to prevent Kremlin actions, through statements or actions, from believing that the current condition will not change more in its benefit in the months ahead.
Divergent Views
Therefore, Russian leadership is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its allies are coming close to fatigue. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the largest achievable advantage is virtually nonexistent. There may be numerous efforts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's leader remains completely certain in the conclusion.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still hold out, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its benefit.
Present Conditions
Factually, there are no real preconditions for a armistice. Now, subjective factors are becoming relevant: leadership ambitions to negotiate peace and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's double obstacles – on one hand, not to alienate a key ally, and on the other, to unite the population around the national cause against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not move to domestic problems. And although their task will now be considerably more difficult after latest incidents, it remains highly unlikely that this will change their overall approach.
These two forces are guiding negotiations.
Summary and Prospects
It took a mere seven days to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Assertive and inconsistent approach of the matter by US administration, resistance by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of negotiators, and finally, latest revelations, all achieved their purpose.
While new initiatives based on previous concepts are imminent, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are based on Russian demands and show specific hesitation to modify developments, if they maintain solidarity and strengthen their defence capabilities at a much faster pace. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the foreseeable future, mainly require sustained allied backing.
